In order to better inform the decisions that must be taken today on AIDS, it is necessary to look fearlessly into the future, however difficult that may be. Therefore the UNAIDS Secretariat, the UN Development Programme, the World Bank (two of the eight Cosponsor agencies of the UNAIDS Programme), the African Development Bank and the Economic Commission for Africa have jointly initiated this project. It draws on the extensive expertise in scenario building of the Global Business Environment team at Shell International, and has received funding support from a number of governments, foundations and businesses.

The core of the project is a series of workshops that will build the scenarios. These workshops were conducted in Africa in the course of 2003 and early 2004. Fifty participants, selected for their individual insight and commitment to Africa’s future,  committed themselves to attending the full series of workshops and, as a group, are devising the scenarios. These participants include people who are already involved in responding to AIDS, but importantly also include many whose day–to–day work does not concern AIDS at all. (Read more about the participants). Expert input and varied opinion is being provided to the workshop participants to assist their efforts.

Of course, it is not possible to represent the full range of talent and commitment to Africa’s future in a group of only 50 people. Therefore a key component of the project is the development of a wider group of stakeholders, who will be able to make input to the scenarios as they develop and who will be able to take forward the discussion of the scenarios within their various communities and circles of influence. (What are scenarios? Find out more.).