The Project commenced in November 2002. The public launch of the scenarios will be in late 2004.

The project has four distinct phases, with ongoing research, communications and administration activities continuous throughout:

The first phase of the project involved conducting about 50 open-ended interviews, designed to produce a clear understanding of the underlying issues, views and perspectives that different individuals identify about the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Africa and its development over the next 20 years. The interviews were conducted with some but not all of the workshop participants and a selection of some 20 divergent thinkers outside the group of workshop participants.

An individual, rather than an institutional, perspective was sought with the emphasis on collecting perceptions, concerns and opinions based on personal experiences, rather than seeking an intellectual analysis of the issues. The individual views were synthesized to frame the discussion at the first of three workshops—the Orientation Workshop.

The Orientation Workshop’s purpose was to map out the issues, to produce a jointly owned overview of the problem and to examine in more depth different points of view.

The second phase involved a workshop aimed at building a set of outline scenarios. This workshop was held in Tunis, September 8-12. The scenarios have been constructed from the key driving forces impacting and shaping the current epidemic. Some of these drivers are anticipated as a given and others are critically uncertain, thus leading to different paths by which the HIV/AIDS epidemic could unfold over the next 20 years. Read more about the Scenario-Building Workshop. Between the second and third workshop, these outline scenarios were developed in more depth.

The third phase involves an Affirmation Workshop, during which the fuller scenarios were presented and discussed, in order to ensure that they provide a relevant, credible and challenging context for developing policy, catalysing partnership approaches, shaping public debate and helping to ensure that financial and other resources allocated to preventing, and mitigating the impact of, HIV/AIDS can be effectively targeted and channelled. Read more about the Affirmation Workshop

The final step is the public launch of the scenarios in first quarter of  2005. The launch will take place in Africa.

In addition to the direct use and wide communication of the scenarios by UNAIDS, its Co-sponsors and other Initiating Partners, the range of potential applications is vast, including: books (for public and expert audiences), an information video, stake holder dialogues (local authority workshops, town hall meetings, etc.), print media articles, a web-based community of practice, and a challenge course for students and others.