SCENARIO-BUILDING WORKSHOP

Coming out from the discussions started at the Orientation Workshop, the participants identified six key areas of challenge (or themes) most relevant in determining how the HIV/AIDS epidemic might play out.

The themes were:

• Capacity to Learn (Capacity to Adapt) / Behaviour Change
• Demography and People Movement
• Ubuntu/Jamaa (Mujtma, or Social Capital)
• Africa in the World/ The World in Africa
• Virus-ology
• Governance and Power Relationships

For each theme, the current reality, controversies, key uncertainties, and inevitable changes were explored.

After hearing about each of the themes, the participants worked in groups to reflect on what they had learnt, to agree on the priority of inevitable changes and critical uncertainties and identify any key missing theme. Participants also explored the critical linkages between these themes (i.e. they further developed a system map of HIV/AIDS.) As a result, the key themes (challenges/critical uncertainties) were revised. 

Critical Uncertainties

The key themes and related critical uncertainties surfaced by the participants covered the following issues:

A)    Bio-medical, behavioural, technological and scientific advances: This picks up the efficacy of provision and use, and their sufficiency. It addresses uncertainties such as: Will there be a cure? Will science and technology provide an answer to AIDS in Africa?

B)    The virus: How will the natural history of the virus play out in Africa? This covers issues relating to the virus, levels of infection and viral dynamics. It also includes important demographic issues.

C)    Inequity and power relations, personal and institutional: How will personal and political inequities shape Africa’s future, especially for women and people living with HIV/AIDS? Will there be positive changes in the way society and the social fabric are organised; what is the role and status of women? Concerning gender balance: Will it be acknowledged in all sectors in the context of human rights? How will personal and political inequities shape Africa’s future—especially women and PLWHA?

D)    External actors: What role will external actors (the IMF, World Bank, WTO) play? This includes issues of finance, donor fatigue, etc. It also includes other external developments.

E)    Shocks: What is the potential impact of shocks: war, climate change, terrorism, other epidemics? This includes terrorism, armed conflict, natural disasters, climate change and the extent of instability and conflicts.

F)     Level of capacity: Does Africa have the capacity to respond? What capacity will be available?

G)    Leadership and governance structures: What leadership will Africa have? This includes uncertainties about corruption.

H)    Economic drivers of change, including household, national, intra-African and global drivers: Will Africa access the benefits of global economic change?

I)        Ubuntu and coping: What are the limits of African community resilience? Stigma—can the silence be broken?

Focal Question

Having refined the set of key challenges and critical uncertainties, the participants worked to create the Focal Question—the “Mother of all questions”—around which the scenarios would be structured. The scenarios, as a set, would answer this question.

The issue was discussed at length and many suggestions were aired. Finally, participants voted on the questions and came up with the following version:

In the next 20 years, what factors will drive Africa and the world’s responses to the HIV/AIDS epidemic and what kind of future will there be for the next generation?

Although there was still some contention concerning the wording, there was general agreement to the spirit of the question.

Building the Sketch Scenarios

The participants were split up into four groups and they worked together to sketch out the first draft of the scenarios. Each group used the agreed building blocks (the key challenges/critical uncertainties and the focal question) to develop at least three stories. Each group presented these sketch scenarios to the plenary.

Volunteers from among the participants worked together in the evening to group together the sketch scenarios which they felt had similar storylines. They combined the sketch scenarios under three stories:

• Africa Overcomes
• Mama Africa/ Africa Kiosk
• Africa Takes a Stand

However, some participants felt there was gap: there was no scenario to reflect the darker possibilities for the future. A space was, therefore, created to build a fourth scenario.

Fleshing out the Four Scenarios

The participants were asked to choose which scenario they wanted to work on. Each of the groups further developed their chosen scenario and presented the stories back to the plenary. The four scenarios were:

• Africa Takes a Stand
• Mama Africa/ Africa Kiosk
• Africa Overcomes
• Whirlpool (reflecting the darker possibilities)

How Many Scenarios?

Following the presentation of the stories, the participants spent some time discussing how many scenarios have actually been created. Various ideas were floated about whether and how the stories could be combined.

In conclusion, the participants charged the project team with the responsibility of refining the storylines, using the building blocks from the four stories to create whichever number of scenarios worked best.

Next Steps